I’m reading this CNN report on its new poll:
Overall, 27% of registered voters say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting this year, down from 37% just ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, and the decline in enthusiasm comes almost entirely among Democrats. Four years ago, 44% of Democratic registered voters said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting; now, just 24% say the same. Among Republicans, the number has dipped only narrowly, from 43% to 38%.
I wouldn’t say a loss of 5 percentage points is “narrow,” but the Democrats have lost 20 percentage points. That’s enormous. What’s going on?!
It could be simply that the economy is the biggest issue and people who like Democrats still don’t trust them with the economy. Even if you love profuse spending, inflation hurts you every day, and at some point your own pain overshadows your self-image as a person of empathy. Maybe just stay home and disconnect. This election’s not for you.
Similarly, a Democrat might abstractly endorse more empathy-oriented policies about crime but worry about their personal safety and the safety of their family. It may not be enough to flip them into voting for a law-and-order Republican, but it might induce abstention. I’ll just turn away and let you rougher folks do things that might be needed.
But let’s talk about abortion. When the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade, Democratic Party politicians thought this was the issue that would rescue them from the red wave that had seemed inevitable. They pushed that issue hard and strongly identified themselves with a plan to pass statutes guaranteeing access to abortion.
The CNN article tells us that abortion is the top issue for 15% of likely voters and for 29% of Democratic likely voters. But I want to know about those unlikely voters. I’m thinking that when abortion was understood and protected as a constitutional right, voting for the Democratic Party did not seem to have a direct causal connection to abortion. Now, the moral problem is stark. The Party is actively calling attention to the voters’ role in making abortion available.
I would think some people, in that situation, would distance and disconnect. Let others decide. Indeed, the erstwhile constitutional right represented the idea that the other should decide. That is, the woman who is experiencing the pregnancy makes the decision, and that is her right. But the decision-making is now in the political sphere, and those who want to stay out of the decision-making — who were adjusted to Roe — can refrain from voting.